Monday, June 1, 2009

The rally just doesn't end.

What could have built up to a day of non-event, the market re-wrote the script the moment Europe and London came into the office.

This might have got to do with China's Apr PMI reading which came in better than expected. Also, exports have turned positive for the first time since mid 2008, which means global demand has started to pick up.

The green shoots are taking root. And stocks love that story. Who cares if GM has filed for bankruptcy? The Dow is trading +180 points at print.

The USD was dumped across the board yet again. I can't say which currencies because there are just too many of them. Basically, normalcy is really being priced into the fx market AND the market is expressing concern for inflation for the longer term.

Gold, silver, oil - alternatives of store of value agst the USD have seen really good bids recently. Gold's high today is 988, just USD 12 shy of the 1,000 target.

Next week, we will have the 10 and 30 yr US treasury auctions and success of this is important to the ability of the US government to fund its massive stimulus plans.

If the market cannot absorb the increased supply of treasuries as well as wished, then, expect the dollar to be further pressured on an expectedly weaker US economic recovery. Stocks would have reason to be capped for the moment as well.

For fx this week, we are seeing an increase in non-commercial short dollar contracts, which means more players are riding on the upward trend of the higher yielding currencies against the dollar.

It'll be really interesting to see how far this can go. And it'll take a really brave man to bet against the tide.

No comments:

Post a Comment