I can't seem to find good trading opportunities in the FX market at this point. But I will post something as soon as news are out dictating the week's flavour.
It seems that the majors have been trading in a range against the dollar, capped by previous highs set in the past weeks as the market is bidding its time to assess latest econ data to see if the greenshoots are ever going to lead to more certain recovery in the global economy.
There are certainly headwinds against this, e.g. rising unemployment in most parts of the industrialized world, potential write downs for european banks, continuing de-leveraging within the US economy etc.
But econ data are showing slower contraction on all fronts - the question is, which investors will bite (and grab risk assets)?
Or are we in for a moderate correction in risk assets?
Next week we loads of econ data that can confuse the mind, but my tendency to lean towards better sentiments.
Because China's data, which tends to give the weary stock markets a good boost, may turn in a good result for the PMI reading (out on Wed 1 Jul), helping commodity prices, (and commodity) currencies, related stocks - spilling over into the europe/US markets, and so on.
Still, we are prone to plenty of event risks considering the various cenbank meetings/statements and econ data surprises.
e.g. hear what more China has to say about diversifying away from the dollar as a reserve currency, SNB's further involvement in the fx markets, a shocking NFP of course.
Nonetheless, I hope you will have a good week ahead!
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