Wednesday, October 7, 2009

How high can US stocks go?


I just took a look at the S&P500 weekly chart to see the next target point(s) should the bullish run continues.

It seems that the next important target is 1120 (red line), which has proven also to be a good resistance/support level for the broad equity index dating all the way back to 1998.

1120 happens to also be the 50% retracement level between last year's high and this year's trough, hence highlighting the significance of this level. Its like ISM's 50 expansionary/recessionary cutoff.

If the upward trend continues, the market should have less gyrations between 1080 (red line) to 1120 as this space in between looks quite clear historically. I've gotten the level 1080 from the confusing 'rays' - which I highlighted as brown lines. These are gann lines and show the natural support/resistance levels like Fib lines do.

In terms of momentum, it seems things are going well for the current trend. Volume continues to be higher than usual (vs pre- 3Q '08) and this means good interest in the equity market on the way up. Rate of Change (seen by the ROC section at the bottom) have ascending lows so this spells good momentum.

Beyond 1120, the next objective is 1220, which historically has been a good resistance/support levels for years dating past.

In terms of support, the first line of defence has always been the 12 wk mva (red mva) - a representation of the quaterly average of prices (some funds do window dressing every quarter btw). That currently stands at 1024, where the mkt bounced up from last week. The next level of support will be on the gann line, but because we are pretty far away from that now, let's leave this story to another day if the bear does comes to eat up the bull.

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