Wednesday, July 8, 2009

Risk aversion in FX

Stocks were mixed at print - 11:48 est time. The dow is slightly sub zero but the S&P500, down 0.74%, below the all important head and shoulders neckline of 880.

The S&P 500 is currently trading at 877. Another's day close below this level could open the way for further declines. Poor economic outlook by companies which report Q2 earnings in the coming days will kill the market.

As this point, we need more convincing evidence of economic growth before risk appetite receives another leg up, but it doesn't look like it at all.

Shorting on strength of risk assets remain my strategy unless Q2 earnings tells us things are not as bad as they seem.

As I have mentioned in my previous post, the yen has emerged as the favoured safe haven currency of choice instead of the dollar. Cross yen currency pairs have sold off massively at print. EURJPY and GBPJPY have lost massively - at least 3% each.

USDJPY is 2.6% lower as well.

Wow.

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